Modeling of single-vehicle crash severity at intersections based on full Bayesian model

Zhenggan Cai^1*, Xin Li¹, Long Chen¹, Xiaoyan Wu¹, Xu Yao²

Abstract

In order to explore the factors that have a significant impact on the severity of single-vehicle crashes at intersections, we take 2940 crashes at intersections in Zibo City from 2017 to 2019 as samples. And then, we use the sample data to establish a Bayesian logit model. The modeling results show that the probability of fatal crash of male drivers is 0.53 times of that of female drivers. The probability of fatal crash of unused seat belts is 2.41 times of that of using seat belts. The probability of fatal crash of drunk driving is 3.75 times of that of non-drunk driving. The probability of fatal crash of elderly drivers is 1.47 times of that of middle-aged drivers. The probability of fatal crash in the night is 1.46 times of that in the morning peak.

Keywords

traffic safety; single-vehicle crash; intersections; full Bayesian model

Cite This Article

Zhenggan Cai, Xin Li, Long Chen, Xiaoyan Wu and Xu Yao (2021). Modeling of single-vehicle crash severity at intersections based on full Bayesian model. International Journal of Scientific Advances (IJSCIA), Volume 2| Issue 1: Jan-Feb 2021, Pages 72-74, URL: https://www.ijscia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Volume2-Issue1-Jan-Feb-No.45-72-74.pdf

Publication In

Volume 2 | Issue 1: Jan-Feb 2021