Mann-Kendall test for Monotonic Trend Analysis of Driving Under Intoxicated (DUI) Arrests in the United States: 1995-2013

J.O. Oluwoye* and L.F. Nicolas-Kassama

Abstract

Drinking under the Influence (DUI) remains to be a public health issue as there has still been a significant number of traffic deaths and injuries due to DUI. Despite the laws enacted and the impacts of DUI highly publicized, the high percentage of people still perceiving DUI as a major personal safety threat furthers the need to review the status of DUIs in this country. There are various agencies in this country that has gathered DUI data in one way or the other. However, making sense of these available information for policy planning purposes on a comprehensive manner remains to be a challenge. It is to this purpose that this study endeavors to review the trends on DUI utilizing existing data gathered by various agencies. Specifically, the objective is to determine whether there has been a statistically significant decrease in the number of DUI arrests from 1995 to 2013. Data on Driving under the Influence (DUI) arrests were drawn from information provided to the Federal Bureau of Investigations’ (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) from 1995 to 2013. The FBI’s UCR Program is a nationwide, cooperative statistical effort of more than 16,000 in 1995 and in 2013, 18,415 city, university and college, county, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies voluntarily reporting data on crimes brought to their attention (Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR), 1995). From 1995 to 2013, the average number of individuals arrested for DUI accounted for 10 percent (14,107,840) of the total arrests in the US. Results revealed during this period; the number of DUI arrests has decreased by 9 percent with an average yearly rate change of 1 percent. The highest increase of the DUI arrests during this period was observed in 1999 with 8 percent, while the highest decrease was observed in 2011 with 14 percent. The year that had the highest number of DUI arrests was in 1999 while the lowest was in 2013. The analysis also revealed that there was a decrease in the total number of DUI arrests from 1995 to 2013 as pointed out by the negative value of the computed Z (Z (S > 0) = -1.77, p = .076). However, there was no statistically significant trend as the normalized test statistic (Z) was less than the critical value (Zα/2 = 1.96) at the level of significance (0.05). The paper concludes that in order to gauge the effectiveness of prevention measures, there is a need to regularly monitor trends in alcohol-impaired driving. There are several approaches adopted by previous studies to examine these trends, which includes onsite surveys of drivers, examination of crash reports and driver’s records. However, developing an approach that utilizes existing sources of data would be the most efficient and effective in terms of time and monetary resources.

Keywords

DUI; traffic violation; trend analysis; time-series; arrests

Cite This Article

Oluwoye, J. O., Kassama-Nicolas, L. F. (2021). Mann-Kendall test for Monotonic Trend Analysis of Driving Under Intoxicated (DUI) Arrests in the United States: 1995-2013. International Journal of Scientific Advances (IJSCIA), Volume 2| Issue 5: Sep-Oct 2021, Pages 886-895 , URL: https://www.ijscia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Volume2-Issue5-Sep-Oct-No.184-886-895.pdf

Volume 2 | Issue 5: Sep-Oct 2021